Outcome Isn’t Everything: Electoral Consequences of Implementing or Withdrawing Unpopular Policies
Published in Political Behavior, 2024
With: Elena Leuschner
Incumbents often make unpopular policy decisions. But can they remedy their negative electoral consequences? We extend the wide literature concerning retrospective voting to the case of unpopular policies and examine whether voters reward a responsive withdrawal of an unpopular policy proposal or punish the disclosed policy intention despite the withdrawal. To test this, we use granular data on Swedish local election results from 2002 to 2018 and the case of widely unpopular school closure proposals, some of which were implemented and others not. We exploit within municipality variation in voting over time to causally estimate the consequences for incumbents in the neighborhood surrounding the schools. Our results confirm that even if a school remains open, voters punish the incumbent and consider the initial proposal as informative for their vote. Our findings have implications for the understanding of democratic accountability and which information voters take into account when casting their vote.
Political Expectations and Electoral Responses to Wind Farm Development in Sweden
Published in Energy Policy, 2024
With: Zeth Isaksson
Wind energy expansion has influenced electoral behavior by decreasing support for incumbents, primarily explained by not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) arguments. However, how does the establishment of wind farms shape electoral behavior when municipal politicians can veto such establishments? Analyzing Sweden, this study shows that voters respond not only by retrospectively evaluating past constructions but also by evaluating parties differently based on their expectations. Our results indicate that parties more likely to approve turbine constructions are punished more than those less expected to do so. Additionally, we find no evidence that the construction of wind turbines influences support for either Green or radical right-wing parties. In conclusion, this study show that the political repercussions of wind farm expansion are multifaceted, influenced by a combination of past actions, future expectations, and the ideological stances of political parties.
Does Deliberative Education Increase Civic Competence? Results from a Field Experiment
Published in Journal of Experimental Political Science, 2020
With: Mikael Persson, Klas Andersson, Pär Zetterberg & Pär Ekman
How should education be structured to most effectively increase civic outcomes such as political knowledge and democratic values? We present results from a field experiment in which we compare the effects of deliberative education and traditional teacher-centered education. The study is the largest field experiment on deliberative education to date and involved more than 1,200 students in 59 classrooms. We test the effects on four forms of civic competence: political knowledge, political interest, democratic values, and political discussion. In contrast to previous research, we find little evidence that deliberative education significantly increases civic competence.
Work in progress:
School Ownership and Government Accountability
Status: In preperation
This study examines the impact of the marketization of the educational sector on citizens’ voting behavior, particularly in response to increased accessibility to education. While it is rational for constituents to reward politicians for investing in public schools it is less clear if politicians also gain support when publicly funded but private entities does the same. Focusing on Sweden, where markatization of education has been far-reaching, the study investigates local electoral shift following the establishment of both new public and non-public schools. By merging comprehensive register data on Swedish schools with electoral data at the precinct level, I am able to study the effect on a neighborhood level and exploit within municipality variation in voting. Surprisingly, in contrast to standard accountability theory constituents seem to neither reward the incumbent politicians for new public schools nor for new non-puublic ones.
Is Private Provision Better? Assessing Educational Outcomes through an Instrumental Variable Approach
Status: In preperation
Globally, private provision of compulsory education is on the rise, offering parents the choice between public and private schools. The question of whether private schools outperform their public counterparts is theoretically debated, and empirical evidence is inconclusive. This study contributes to this debate by examining the impact of school ownership (public or private) on education quality in Sweden. Sweden’s unique context allows isolating ownership effects from funding, as all schools are funded through the same voucher system. I use comprehensive registry data for all Swedes completing compulsory education since 1992 and address self-selection into schools with an instrumental variable approach. This leverages the admission process of private schools, which prioritizes students with older siblings enrolled. The age of the older sibling relative to the establishment of the first private school in their neighbourhood serves as an instrument, enabling a causal effect estimation by effectively comparing individuals similar in all aspects except the ages of their older siblings.